Every quarter this page is refreshed with the official numbers and what they mean in practice. Figures below are as at July 2026, from HDB flash estimates, URA flash estimates and published transaction data; always re-verify before acting.
The headline: back-to-back declines
HDB's flash estimate puts the Q2 2026 Resale Price Index down −0.3% quarter-on-quarter, following −0.1% in Q1 — the first back-to-back decline in roughly seven years. Two small dips do not make a crash; the index remains near historic highs. But the direction of travel has changed, and buyer psychology has changed with it: lowball offers are back, and overpriced listings are sitting.
| Indicator | Reading | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| HDB Resale Price Index, Q1 2026 | −0.1% QoQ | First dip since 2019 |
| HDB Resale Price Index, Q2 2026 (flash) | −0.3% QoQ | First back-to-back dip in ~7 years |
| Flats reaching MOP in 2026 | ~13,500 | Supply wave — Punggol ~3,222, Tampines ~2,133 |
| 3M SORA | ~1.1% | Multi-year low; fixed packages ~1.4–1.5% |
| URA private index, Q2 2026 (flash) | +0.5% QoQ | Slowest rise in 7 quarters; consensus ~+3% for 2026 |
The MOP wave is a town-level story
About 13,500 flats reach their 5-year Minimum Occupation Period in 2026 — the biggest cohort in years — concentrated in Punggol (~3,222 flats) and Tampines (~2,133), with Queenstown among the larger mature-town cohorts. Newly-MOP flats are typically under 10 years old, near MRT and amenities, and priced against older resale stock: they compete hardest with exactly the flats most sellers own.
Median resale prices entering 2026 sat around S$717k in Tampines, S$677k in Sengkang and S$673k in Punggol (Q1 2026 transaction data, indicative). In towns with heavy MOP supply, sellers of older flats now compete with near-new alternatives — while buyers gain negotiating room they have not had since 2019.
Cheap money changes the maths
With 3M SORA around 1.1% and two-year fixed packages near 1.4–1.5%, the HDB concessionary loan at 2.6% suddenly looks expensive — the reverse of the 2022–2024 picture. Refinancing and bank-loan uptake is rising. For buyers, a one-percentage-point rate difference on a S$500,000, 25-year loan is roughly S$260/month — real money that should enter any buy-versus-wait calculation.
ECs and new launches keep pulling demand
Rivelle Tampines sold out within a month of its March 2026 booking (median S$1,937 psf), and the May 2026 rule reset split the EC world in two: five pipeline projects keep the old 5-year MOP (Sembawang Road, Solano Grand, Miltonia Close, both Wynwood Grand plots), while future sites carry a 10-year MOP. For HDB upgraders, that makes the 2026–27 EC window genuinely time-limited — one reason resale sellers near these launches are finding motivated buyers.
What this means for you
- Selling? Price to the most recent evidence, not to 2024 memories — and win the first two weeks, when your listing is freshest. In MOP-heavy towns, presentation and pricing decide whether you transact in 5 weeks or 5 months. Start with a free, evidence-based valuation.
- Buying resale? You have leverage you have not had in years — but check grant stacks (up to S$230,000) and borrowing ceilings (TDSR/MSR calculator) before negotiating.
- Upgrading? Falling resale prices cut both ways: you sell slightly lower but also buy with more room — and cheap loans shrink the gap. The ABSD remission rules decide your sequencing.
Frequently asked questions
Consensus as at July 2026 is for a flat to slightly negative second half: two small consecutive quarterly declines, ~13,500 newly-MOP flats adding supply, but cheap loans (~1.1% 3M SORA) supporting affordability. Town-level outcomes will diverge — supply-heavy towns face the most pressure.
It depends on your next move. Prices are off their peak but still near historic highs, and upgrader demand (driven by the EC window and low rates) is real. If you are buying next, what matters is the gap — and gaps often narrow when the market softens. Get the numbers for your specific flat before deciding.
With 3M SORA around 1.1% and fixed packages near 1.4–1.5%, bank loans are roughly a percentage point below the 2.6% HDB concessionary rate as at July 2026. Bank loans carry rate-reset risk and MSR/TDSR tests; HDB loans offer stability and no lock-in. Compare both against your horizon before choosing.
Punggol leads with roughly 3,222 flats reaching MOP, followed by Tampines with about 2,133; Queenstown is among the larger mature-town cohorts. More MOP supply means more choice for buyers and more competition for sellers of older flats in those towns.